Source: European Parliament
The intelligence threats assessments of the Member States remain outside the remit of the Commission. Therefore, the Commission is not in a position to evaluate or assess them.
The Commission officials, in their public statements, have been referring to open-source information in which Member States’ intelligence services assessed the probability of Russian aggressive actions against the EU as likely in a five-year perspective.
Commission defence industry programmes and instruments aimed at boosting European defence are proposed in the context of growing threats to European security which are proliferating in a way that poses an acute challenge to the EU way of life. This was the case even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
However, the Russian full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine has forced the EU and its partners to confront the reality of high-intensity war returning on the European continent on a scale never seen since 1945. Consequently, in the Commission assessment the only way the EU can ensure peace is to gain the ability to deter those who could harm the EU.
Therefore, in March 2025, the Commission and the High Representative/Vice-President presented jointly the White Paper for European Readiness 2030[1] and the President of the Commission previously proposed the ReArm Europe Plan that lays down sound funding foundations to support a surge in defence.
This long-term endeavour will enable the Member States to build up their armed forces to face any scenario, including the most extreme military contingencies.
- [1] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52025JC0120.