Source: Government of Sweden
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The starting point for the Swedish Government’s guidelines decision is the
objective of central government debt policy adopted by the Riksdag
(Swedish Parliament). The objective is that central government debt shall
be managed so as to minimise the long-term cost of the debt while taking
the risk associated with its management into account, and shall be
conducted within the framework of the requirements of monetary policy.
Central government debt increased as a share of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in 2023. It is expected that central government debt will continue
to increase as a share of GDP early in the forecast period, and then decrease in 2026–2027. Even in absolute terms, central government debt is expected to increase initially. Central government debt will then decrease in billions of SEK in 2027.
The guidelines decision for 2025 means the following changes to the
steering of debt management compared with the preceding year:
• The Swedish National Debt Office will continue to issue inflation-linked
bonds, but the outstanding stock is to be gradually reduced. At the end of
2029, the inflation-linked debt is to amount to a target level of
approximately SEK 80 billion (nominal amount without inflation
compensation).
• Term to maturity is to be measured as average time to refixing (ATR).
• In guideline point 24, ‘debt shares’ is changed to ‘composition’.
The composition of the central government debt is to be steered towards:
• Inflation-linked krona debt is to be gradually reduced, amounting to a
target level of approximately SEK 80 billion by the end of 2029.
• Foreign currency debt (i.e. foreign currency exposure) is to continue to
be gradually phased out and attain the target value of zero as of
(1 January) 2027.
• Nominal krona debt is to continue to make up the remaining share of the
central government debt after inflation-linked krona debt and foreign
currency debt.
The term to maturity (in terms of average time to refixing) of the central
government debt is to continue to be steered towards 3.5–6 years.
The Swedish National Debt Office’s proposed guidelines and
amendments to Sveriges Riksbank Act (2022:1568) among other factors
formed the basis for this guidelines decision.
In connection with the preparation of the Government’s guidelines
decision, the Riksbank has been afforded the opportunity to provide its
opinion on the Debt Office’s proposal. The Riksbank has raised no
objections.
The Government’s guidelines decision for 2025 largely accords with the
Debt Office’s proposed guidelines.