Source: European Union 2
Democracy is under threat in the EU, but the evidence needed to respond effectively is lacking. “Despite a lot of empirical research, clear findings that can guide policymakers remain limited,” says project coordinator Michael Kaeding, professor of European Integration and European Policy at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany.
To accurately measure the shape and scale of the legitimacy crisis facing European politics, ActEU created a unique approach to capture the drivers of trust and mistrust in a complex, multilayered political environment.
“We found that while trust actually remains fairly stable overall, there are short-term fluctuations, especially driven by factors such as economic security, immigration and perceptions of fairness,” explains the project’s scientific lead Daniela Braun, professor of Political Science at Saarland University in Germany.
The hierarchy of trust
The ActEU team contend that trust between citizens and state institutions is not an output of democratic systems, but a precondition of them.
“Without the trust of a critical mass of people – where citizens feel heard, represented and able to participate in political life – democratic governments lose legitimacy. This is even more precarious in times of crisis,” remarks researcher Alex Hartland, also at Saarland University.
Existing studies typically examined ideas around political legitimacy through the lens of attitudes or behaviours. ActEU integrated both and added a third dimension, that of representation.
“These categories are interlinked, evolving and influencing one another depending on context. For example, strong representation can lead to increased participation and changing attitudes,” adds Zoe Lefkofridi, an expert in political representation at the University of Salzburg in Austria.
To explore this dynamic, the researchers mapped declining trust in the EU’s multilevel governance system using public opinion surveys, focus groups and data scraped from online sources.
While Europeans’ political trust in and perceptions of legitimacy are not declining in general, this depends on the level of governance in question.
“We found a hierarchy of trust. Citizens trust most those politics closest to daily life – local and regional. Trust is lower at the national level, and varies for the EU level,” says Braun.
However, this pattern is not consistent across all countries. Trust in higher-level institutions was found to have steadily decreased since the early 2000s in many countries, albeit with some partial and full recoveries.
Croatia, Denmark, Finland and Sweden showed a clear linear increase in trust over time, while citizens in Bulgaria, Cyprus, France and Poland are losing faith in politics.
“EU policymakers must remember that citizens live in a multilevel system. When rebuilding trust and legitimacy, it would be unwise to only focus initiatives on the supranational level,” notes political scientist Ann-Kathrin Reinl, a member of ActEU’s advisory board. “If citizens lose trust in local and regional politics, this can escalate.”
While electoral turnout was found to be declining overall, any increases were associated with extremes of trust and distrust, evidenced by increased vote share for radical right parties, with notable exceptions in central and eastern Europe.
Reinvigorating democracy
To boost political engagement and skills among young European citizens, ActEU set up 17 Youth Democracy Labs with over 300 school and university students, resulting in two toolkits to support a more cohesive, inclusive and resilient society.
“One is targeted at the educational sector, and uses engaging features such as videos, podcasts, infographics and cartoons to translate ActEU’s findings without simplifying the issues,” adds Alex Hoppe, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Duisburg-Essen. “The other is aimed at policymakers, and hosts resources to help expert audiences rebuild public trust, guided by concise evidence-based recommendations.”
Both toolkits continue to be used in the team’s teaching and outreach activities, garnering positive feedback.
The project’s wide-ranging data and analysis can be explored in a recently published book, ‘Activating European Citizens’ Trust in Times of Crisis and Polarization: Towards a New Era of Representative Democracy’.
With journal publications under review or in progress, ActEU’s researchers continue to work on quantifying political and societal polarisation, as part of Saarland University’s SOUNDS project co-led by Braun.