Source: European Parliament
Europeans are searching for their geopolitical footprint and trying to build a European pillar in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at a time when the United States is likely to reduce its engagement in Europe, while Russia is looking for a reset of the European security architecture, which developed at the end of the Cold War, by waging war on Ukraine. After analysing the evolution of key security organisations in Europe – NATO, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE)/Organisation on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union (EU) – and the defence policies of individual countries, five possible scenarios for a new European security architecture were developed with the use of foresight methodology. Based on expert consultations, four of the scenarios – Antagonism, European NATO, European Defence Union and Patchwork – point to an increasingly antagonistic world in the next decade. These scenarios consider the degree of US (dis)engagement from Europe, EU-NATO relations and the possible outcome of the Ukraine war. While Antagonism can largely be seen as a continuation of the current state of play, with a solid transatlantic relationship anchored in NATO, the Patchwork scenario is the most challenging, with no strong alliance and in which Europe becomes a playground. Conversely, a new détente (relaxation of relations among global powers) leading to a more cooperative world needs a new triggering factor. This scenario, Cooperative co-existence, would possibly require over a decade to happen, and Europeans would need to compensate for further US disengagement from Europe, either through a European NATO or a European Defence Union, if they wish to matter as a geopolitical actor. Europeans therefore need to increase defence funding (in the case of further US disengagement, possibly by above 5 % of GDP), strengthen their capabilities, including nuclear and space capabilities, keep pace with the technological race and bolster the European defence industrial network. By developing its strategic autonomy, the EU might enhance its agency in defence matters, preserve transatlantic ties and allow the European interest to prevail.