West Invest Bank – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

26 March 2026 Warning Notice

Warning Unauthorised Banking Business
Unauthorised Firm Name West Invest Bank
Website www.westinvestbank.com
Email address used [email protected]
Authorisation in Ireland This firm is not authorised to provide banking business services or any other financial services in Ireland.

 Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013. 

Walsh Trust Bank – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

26 March 2026 Warning Notice

Warning Unauthorised Banking Business
Unauthorised Firm Name Walsh Trust Bank
Website www.walshtrust.com 
Email address used [email protected] 
Phone numbers used
  • +353 1 1785396
  • 1626 879 6954
Authorisation in Ireland This firm is not authorised to provide banking business services or any other financial services in Ireland.

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013. 

Quarterly Bulletin 2026: 1 Renewed surge in international energy prices tests domestic economic resilience

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

Renewed surge in international energy prices tests domestic economic resilience

  • Higher oil and gas prices are expected to lead to lower growth and higher inflation than previously expected.  The extent is dependent on the duration of the conflict and the scale of damage to critical infrastructure in the Middle East. 
  • MDD is forecast to grow by 2.8 per cent per annum on average from 2026 to 2028 in the baseline forecast, with inflation averaging 2.5 per cent per annum over that period.
  • More severe energy shock scenario could see inflation going above 4 per cent this year and reducing MMD growth to just above 2 per cent. 

The Central Bank has today (26 March 2026) published its first Quarterly Bulletin of 2026. At the launch of the Quarterly Bulletin, Robert Kelly, Director of Economics and Statistics said: “The recent developments in the Middle East present further challenges for both the Irish and European economies, which were already having to adapt to a shifting geopolitical situation.  The higher oil and gas prices we are seeing are expected to lead to lower growth and higher inflation than we previously anticipated.  The extent of these effects really is dependent on the duration and intensity of the conflict and the scale of damage to critical infrastructure in the Middle East.  These events highlight just how sensitive the Irish economy is to global developments and the need to maintain and build resilience in our domestic economy and public finances. This has become a foremost priority given the reality of a less favourable geoeconomic situation than what has been the norm in recent decades, impacting trade, supply chain security, and investment.”

“Higher energy costs have already been reflected to varying degrees across the price of different fuel types and these are likely to have both direct and indirect effects on inflation facing businesses and households. This recent event in the Middle East, coming just four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying sharp rise in gas, oil and food prices, naturally leads to comparisons with that period.  However, as of mid-March the current scale of the initial energy price shock is not as acute, with spot and futures gas and oil prices not persistently reaching the heights of 2022.  At the same time, domestic demand conditions, while still far from weak, are not as buoyant as they were in the post-pandemic surge that coincided with the Russian invasion, potentially reducing the scope for large second-round effects this time.”

“Our baseline forecast uses assumptions derived from market data as of 11 March, but given energy price movements in the meantime and the uncertainty around the outlook, we have looked at a range of possible scenarios in this Bulletin relative to the baseline assumption of a short conflict and a quick restoration of supply-chains.  In the baseline, domestic economic growth is marginally weaker than our previous forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with inflation remaining between 2.5 and 3 per cent in those years. A lengthier conflict with significantly more disruption could see inflation in Ireland being about 1 percentage point higher than that baseline on average over the next three years.”

A large increase in investment underpinned growth in overall Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) in 2025, but signs of a slowdown in economic activity are evident in some other indicators. MDD expanded by 6.7 per cent in Q4 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024, resulting in overall growth of 4.9 per cent for the year as a whole. There is solid underlying momentum in economic activity from domestic demand and net exports that is consistent with steady growth, but the severity and duration of the conflict in the Middle East hangs over the outlook for inflation and growth. The central forecast is based on an assumed path for oil and gas futures prices as at 11 March 2026. These assumptions capture some of the initial impact of the war on energy prices, with oil and gas prices assumed to be 30 and 57 per cent higher on average in 2026 than in our December forecast. Overall MDD is forecast to grow by 2.8 per cent per annum on average from 2026 to 2028, around half the observed annual average growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the 5 years up to 2025. The central projections are sensitive to the assumed path of energy prices. An escalation of the conflict resulting in higher energy prices, and for a more prolonged period than assumed in the central forecast, would lead to higher inflation and weaker growth.

Driven by higher energy costs, projected inflation has been revised upwards to 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 2.6 per cent in 2027.  Higher inflation has prompted knock-on downward revisions to growth in households’ real disposable income and consumption from 2026 to 2028.  Nominal wage growth is expected to ease back to 3.5 per cent by 2028 which, when combined with other net income and the inflation outlook, sees average household disposable income remaining relatively unchanged over the baseline forecast horizon.

The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.3 per cent in 2024 to 4.7 per cent in 2025, with wider measures of labour market slack also rising. The pace of employment growth is easing in-line with wider economic developments but is still expected to be just below 2 per cent out to 2028, with unemployment rising just above 5 per cent.  Much of the easing in the labour market has been evident in the experience of younger workers, and to date primarily reflects cyclical norms in more consumer-facing sectors rather than significant structural shifts in labour demand due to technological change. 

While consumer spending may be more constrained considering the higher than previously expected inflation outlook, domestic investment is expected to grow at a steady pace.  This reflects the anticipated delivery of public capital infrastructure, rising housing completions and slightly more momentum in business investment than previously forecast.  However, should higher energy costs become persistent this would alter the relative returns and the viability of some capital expenditure over the forecast horizon.  For housing, some of the benchmark indicators commonly used for forecasting output, such as commencements and PMIs, are less straightforward to interpret than previously, and point to the potential for a less robust rise in housing output than in our current forecast.  Housing completions are forecast to number 40,000, 43,000 and 46,000 in 2026, 2027 and 2028 respectively.  Higher housing output depends to a considerable extent on the delivery of necessary public infrastructure, including the implementation of the Accelerating Infrastructure Action Plan.  This, alongside other measures to attract private investment, is warranted and feasible to achieve, considering the extent of private sector savings and the relatively low rate of investment over the past decade, especially by indigenous businesses.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Clone) – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

24 March 2026 Warning Notice

Warning Unauthorised Investment Firm/Investment Business Firm 
Unauthorised Firm Name J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Clone)
Website N/A
Email addresses used
Phone numbers used
  • +353 (0)1 556 3930 IE
  • +353 (0)1 265 7180 IE
  • +353 15563742 IE
  • 015563754 IE
  • +35315563934 IE
  • +35315563764 IE
  • +44 (0)208 638 1270 UK
Authorisation in Ireland J.P. Morgan Asset Management (CLONE) is not authorised to provide Investment services or Investment Business services in Ireland.
Additional information

This Unauthorised Firm has cloned the name and details of a Central Bank authorised firm and has been seeking to pass itself off as the legitimate firm, JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.A.R.L, in order to deceive consumers.

It should be noted that there is no connection between the Central Bank authorised firm and the Unauthorised Firm. 

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800 or report an unauthorised firm directly to the Central Bank.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013.

Remarks by Deputy Governor Colm Kincaid to Central Bank of Ireland’s Consumer Protection Workshop – Consumer Protection at the Heart of Our Mission

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

24 March 2026 Speech

Good afternoon and welcome to this Central Bank of Ireland workshop on the Consumer Protection Code.

Today I will focus on the outlook for consumers and investors. But first let me pause to talk a little about the broader context in which we find ourselves. 

We are living through a period marked by extraordinary change, geopolitical instability, rapid technological transformation and shifting economic conditions.  

Governor Makhlouf summarised this well when he said how 2026 has already seen extreme examples of these changes, be it from global conflict (both armed and economic) to continued technological development (including its increasing use and mis-use) to climate change, with extreme weather events across the globe, including here in Ireland and other parts of Europe.1

This pace of change and the uncertainty of global events means that risks once considered remote have become more likely and it is no longer a question of whether significant change will come, but instead how we will respond to this change, both individually and collectively.

At the same time, innovation in financial services (and in particular digitalisation) continues to bring significant benefits and gives us more control of our finances and more choice.  We can transfer money instantly, we can apply for insurance with just a few taps on our mobile phones and we can access a broader suite of financial products and information.

It is in this context that I want to talk to you today about something that sits at the absolute heart of what we do here at the Central Bank of Ireland as a fundamental expression of our statutory mandate and our public service mission.

I am of course talking about consumer and investor protection.

More specifically, I want to talk about the revised Consumer Protection Code and why I believe it represents one of the most important pieces of work the Central Bank has undertaken in recent years to contribute to our future wellbeing. Not because it is perfect—no regulation ever is.  But because it has been designed for the world we are now in, the risks that world presents to us as consumers and the opportunities modern financial services can provide when well designed and delivered. 

The Landscape We Face

This period of innovation coupled with great structural change and challenge is not merely the backdrop to our work at the Central Bank, but the substance of it. Those geopolitical strains, that complexity, that transformation in how our world operates—all of it flows through the financial system. It reaches us as consumers in our mortgages, our savings, our insurance needs, our ability to plan for retirement and our continued access to the payments we need to live our lives.

For this reason, consumer protection sits at the heart of everything we do. A financial system that does not protect its consumers is a system that will ultimately fail—fail in its stability, fail in its integrity, fail in its purpose.

In our Regulatory & Supervisory Outlook for 2026, we describe a world of heightened geopolitical and macro-financial risks. A world where operational risks, the threat of cyber-attacks and frauds & scams are at elevated levels. A world where consumers face new vulnerabilities from digitalisation and complexity. Recently, I was privileged to co-sign the OECD’s Consumer Finance Risk Monitor, providing a risk outlook across 60 jurisdictions and also calling out these issues. And you will see these same issues identified in virtually every such publication whether it be from the perspective of financial stability, market integrity or broader public policy.

This is the reality we face. 

Why we reviewed the Code

The context I have just described is why the Central Bank embarked on a comprehensive review of our Consumer Protection Code in 2022. We did not do it because there was a crisis or because our existing rules had failed to deliver in the past. We did it because we recognised in our Strategy that the landscape facing consumers was about to fundamentally change. We anticipated that digitalisation, financial innovation and changing consumer behaviour would create a new environment in which consumers would need different protections, and in which firms would need clearer expectations about how to serve consumers in a faster pace of change.

We consulted and engaged extensively. We listened to consumers, to civil society and to industry practitioners – many of you here today. We looked at what was happening in other jurisdictions and where international best practice was pointing. We examined the evidence of where consumers were being harmed. And from all that, we designed a Code that speaks to the risks we knew were coming.

The Transformation

So, let’s look at this transformation and how the new Code is responding.

Operational risks are at elevated levels. Increased geopolitical fragmentation, operational complexity (including in supply chains) and cyber risks present new potential to disrupt consumers’ means of payment and other access to financial services. The Code responds with requirements for regulated entities’ risk management systems, internal controls and governance arrangements to manage their affairs sustainably, responsibly and in a sound and prudent manner.

Financial crime is increasing, including as technology (so beneficial to our daily lives) provides criminals with new ways to harm us. The Code responds with explicit requirements that firms take steps to protect consumers against frauds and scams and that where they occur, consumers are supported.

Digitalisation is amplifying both opportunities and risks, and presenting new types of consumer vulnerabilities.  The revised Code introduces new requirements to ensure that the digital technologies firms use are designed and implemented with a consumer focus. But we have been careful to also be technology neutral, recognising the technology of tomorrow will be different yet again from the technology of today.

Data usage and AI risks are growing. Advanced models and expanding data collection have long been used by leading firms, but widespread adoption of AI tools changes this landscape. For consumers, this means their creditworthiness assessments, their insurance pricing, their investment recommendations may be made by algorithms they cannot see or understand. The Code responds by requiring that firms not use data and profiling to identify behaviours, habits, preferences or biases for the purposes of exploiting these to target consumers to their detriment.

Consumers are increasingly time-poor and face complex choices. The Code responds by improving the information consumers will receive when making key decisions like switching their mortgage or insurance and being clearer on what is required of firms to inform consumers effectively. It will also require regulated firms to be much clearer with consumers if any of the services they provide are not regulated by the Central Bank.

A Convergence of Perspectives

And here I want to highlight a crucial point: these risks I describe are not just consumer-specific risks. They are system risks. They are risks that threaten financial stability, that threaten the integrity of the financial system, that threaten the safety and soundness of regulated firms. In short, the landscape is converging around new risks that increasingly transcend traditional categorisations of ‘prudential’, ‘conduct’ and ‘market integrity’.

This is why, at the Central Bank, we have fundamentally integrated our supervisory approach. Consumer protection, safety and soundness of firms, financial stability, and integrity of the financial system are increasingly interconnected and must reinforce one another.

A Living Regime

The pace of change I have described will not slow down. Geopolitical fragmentation will likely continue. Digitalisation will accelerate. New products will be developed. New opportunities and threats will materialise. Consumer behaviour will evolve. AI will become more sophisticated and mainstream. Climate impacts will intensify. This is why we need to see the new Code not as the end of a rule reform process but as the beginning of a new framework that aims to be alive to protecting us in a landscape that is changing at an ever-increasing pace.

This is why I say the Code must be a living regime.

That means of course that, as a regulator, we must continue to listen. We will listen to the firms implementing the Code on areas where clarification is needed. We will listen to consumers and consumer advocates on whether the Code is delivering the protections it promises. We will listen to international peers on emerging risks and best practices. And we will adapt as the situation facing consumers evolves.

I also want to say something directly to firms in this regard: the Code sets out principles and requirements. It is your responsibility to take those principles and design better products and services around them. It is your responsibility to simplify how you explain what you do and communicate with consumers in a manner that informs them effectively. It is your responsibility to make your systems and processes more consumer-centric. That means anticipating consumer needs and risks. It means supporting your customers in the situations where they may be vulnerable. It means investing in operational resilience. It means taking fraud prevention seriously and supporting consumers who fall victim to it. It means using technology to serve consumers, not to exploit them.

Implementation

Of course, a regulatory regime is only as good as its implementation.

In 2026 the Central Bank will undertake 52 specific bodies of work related to protecting consumers and investors. This work programme will cover the key issues consumers are complaining about (including as evidenced by the Financial Services and Pensions Ombudsman), each of the key risks identified by the OECD at global level and the issues identified in our Regulatory & Supervisory Outlook. These are concrete actions targeting where we want to see change.

We will conduct thematic reviews on how firms are dealing with customer complaints and their approach to root cause analysis. We will assess how firms are treating customers in vulnerable circumstances, which may include borrowers in or facing arrears. We will review how firms are handling customer errors and applying learnings. We will examine how firms are implementing the Code’s requirements on fraud prevention and supporting fraud victims. We will assess how firms are using artificial intelligence and whether they are discriminating against consumers. We will review commission arrangements to ensure they are aligned with securing customer interests. We will conduct reviews of product governance to ensure products are suitable for their target markets. We will assess how firms are managing the transition to digital delivery. We will review how firms are managing conflicts of interest. We will assess how firms are securing consumer interests in their strategic decision-making.

This is intensive, targeted, evidence-based supervision designed to drive real change in how firms operate. And it is informed by the evidence of what consumers are experiencing. We listen to consumer complaints. We analyse trends. We identify patterns. We target our supervisory work accordingly. And where we find firms are not meeting the standard, we will use the full range of our supervisory toolkit.

Collaboration and Integration

And there is something else I want to emphasise. Increasingly, the risks we face are not risks that any single authority can solve alone. Operational resilience requires collaboration between financial services firms, technology companies and regulators. Combatting frauds and scams requires collaboration between financial services firms, technology companies and law enforcement.  Progressing the National Financial Literacy Strategy requires collaboration between Government departments, the CCPC, the Central Bank, other authorities, firms and civil society. Dealing with the issues presented by digitalisation requires collaboration between regulators, firms, technology providers and consumer advocates. Building a stronger saving and investment culture requires collaboration across the financial system and beyond.

This is why we have embedded collaboration into our approach.

We work through the European Supervisory Authorities to ensure convergence and consistency across the EU. We work at the OECD and international bodies to develop global standards and best practice. We work with other Irish authorities—the CCPC, the FSPO, the Department of Finance—to ensure we are complementary in our approach. We engage with civil society and consumer advocates to ensure we are hearing the voices of those most affected by financial system risks. We work with technology platforms through our trusted flagger status to combat fraud and scams. Through all this, we are actively supporting individuals to manage their financial needs and obligations, to cope with shocks, to pursue their aspirations, and to feel confident about their financial lives and in their financial well-being. Through the delivery of our statutory mandate the Central Bank makes an important contribution to financial well-being. Not solely— many factors outside our control shape financial well-being. But meaningfully.

Consistent with our Code being a living regime, the Central Bank will always be available to listen to the concerns of users of financial services, their advocates and representatives, other agencies, and to firms themselves as they seek to do their best to apply the Code’s standards in practice.

Conclusion

The new Consumer Protection Code represents a fundamental statement about what the Central Bank of Ireland stands for. It serves as confirmation that the Central Bank will continue to respond to the challenges facing the public we serve.  

The risks facing consumers are real. They are growing. They are complex. They are the same risks that threaten financial stability and the integrity of the system. But they are not insurmountable. With the right regulatory framework, with intensive supervision, with collaboration across the system towards a shared goal, and with a commitment to putting consumers at the heart of everything we do, we can mitigate those risks. We can reap the benefits of digital transformation. We can support households to get the full benefit of what financial services could do to help us provide for our future.2 We can maintain the trust that is essential to a functioning financial system. We can make our contribution to our own financial well-being and that of the people we care about.

That is what the Code is about. That is what we are committed to delivering. That is what sits at the heart of the Central Bank’s mission.

Thank you.


How the Consumer Protection Code Secures Your Interests

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

24 March 2026 Press Release

The Central Bank of Ireland today (Tuesday 24 March 2026) marked the coming into force of the modernised Consumer Protection Code, giving consumers stronger protections when using banks, insurance companies, and other financial services.

The modernised Code has been designed to better protect consumers in today’s world, and in anticipation of how financial services will evolve into the future. It follows extensive public consultation and engagement.

Deputy Governor Colm Kincaid said: “The Central Bank’s Consumer Protection Code imposes statutory obligations on regulated financial service providers to put your interests at the heart of how they design, sell and explain financial products and services – and how they support you to make confident financial decisions.”

What This Means for You:

Securing Your Interests: Financial firms must design products and services that meet your needs. They must communicate clearly and help you make decisions that are right for you.

Better Information: Firms must give you information in plain language that you can understand, without unnecessary jargon or technical terms. Information must be clear, accurate, and up to date.

Mortgage Switching Made Easier: If you have a mortgage, your lender must:

  •        Show you how much money you could save by switching to a cheaper mortgage
  •        Send you reminders about cheaper options
  •        Provide your title deeds within 10 working days of the request

Protection from Scams and Fraud: New requirements for firms to counter the risk of frauds and scams, keep you informed and support you if you fall victim.

Insurance Renewals: For gadget, dental, pet, and travel insurance, firms can no longer automatically renew your policy unless you explicitly agree. This avoids you ending up with insurance you no longer want or need.

Digital Services: Apps and websites must be easy to use. When buying on credit online (like “buy now, pay later”), firms must give you enough time to think about whether this type of credit is right for you.

Support When You Need It: If you’re going through difficult times – like illness, bereavement, or job loss – firms must provide extra support. You can also nominate a Trusted Contact Person who the firm can contact if needed.

Easy to Complain: Firms must make it simple for you to complain and must resolve issues quickly.

Deputy Governor Kincaid added: “The modernised Code covers a wide range of everyday financial services, from insurance to banking to borrowing to investing. It introduces new safeguards against frauds and scams and protections for people in vulnerable circumstances. And it gives you rights.  

The Central Bank of Ireland is introducing the modernised Consumer Protection Code to ensure firms secure your interests and help you support your financial wellbeing.  I encourage everyone to get to know their rights and to use them.”

The Code also protects small businesses with a turnover of less than €5 million.

Find out more about your rights at www.centralbank.ie/Code   

ENDS

Notes to Editors

Fully bilingual information on the modernised Code will be available on the Central Bank of Ireland website.

The Consumer Protection Code applies to all regulated financial service providers in Ireland, including banks, insurance companies, investment firms, and brokers.

The Code of Conduct on Mortgage Arrears has been consolidated into the Code to deliver an integrated framework.

Further information

[email protected]

What the (latest) Middle East conflict means for inflation, growth, and monetary policy in Europe

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

20 March 2026 Blog

When the Governing Council met this week in Frankfurt, the backdrop was markedly different from the one we faced just six weeks ago.  

In February, our central challenge was to gauge the two-sided risks to inflation and growth. Despite these risks I expected inflation to move within a narrow range around our 2 per cent target through 2026-27.

Today, and notwithstanding longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored, we now confront a new and serious source of uncertainty: the conflict in Iran and the broader escalation of tensions across the Middle East. These external forces may have made the path ahead less clear but our commitment to achieving our target has not changed and nor is it contingent on the geopolitical environment. Indeed, history has taught us that it is precisely in such moments of elevated uncertainty that a clear anchor for inflation expectations matters most.

What has changed

The conflict changes both the supply and the demand-drivers of inflation and growth.

On the supply side, it quickly pushes energy prices higher, raising the risk that headline inflation moves back above target faster and more forcefully than we had expected. Sectors where energy is a significant input – such as fertilisers in food production – are also likely to experience a bout of cost-push inflation, that is where producers are under pressure to raise output prices because their input prices have increased.

The conflict also impacts the demand side, through its effects on real incomes, investment, confidence, financial conditions, and global trade. This is a slower-moving dynamic than the initial energy price shock, and creates a headwind to growth that could, over time, pull inflation down. While we cannot at this stage be precise about the scale of the impact, the March projections published yesterday illustrate the wide uncertainty band around the size and persistence of this energy shock, and how it could filter through to inflation and growth.

The December projections had oil and gas commodity prices falling through 2026 (-10 per cent and -19 per cent, respectively), before remaining broadly flat thereafter. The new March baseline projection is now for increases of 18 per cent (oil) and 28 per cent (gas) in 2026, before gradually falling back in 2027.  

But there is much uncertainty around this outlook. Therefore, the Governing Council’s deliberations also considered adverse and severe scenarios where energy commodity prices could essentially peak at double or triple end-2025 levels. These scenarios – one of the lessons from the previous inflation episode which we adopted in our refreshed strategy – are informed by historic price distributions, including around the start of the Ukraine war.

Because energy consumption accounts for just under 10 per cent of the average household’s consumption basket, the initial direct pass-through to headline inflation is smaller than these scenarios suggest. We can also expect to see indirect effects – where increased input costs for goods and services as a result of higher energy prices shows up in cost-push inflation – and second-round effects – as nominal wages gradually adjust to the new price level. The charts at the end of the blog show the paths for inflation (headline and core) and real GDP growth under the various scenarios. 

Monetary policy decision

Given upward and downward price pressures, and the different time-horizons over how these effects can evolve, combined with significant uncertainty around how things might develop, the case for waiting until we can be more certain about the outlook is strong.

It’s why we left the main policy rate unchanged at yesterday’s meeting. There will be time to re-assess at our next meeting (in six weeks). We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Of course, this is the second energy supply shock we have faced within the space of five years.

We saw after the Russian invasion of Ukraine how sharp increases in energy prices – especially gas prices – squeeze producers and consumers, and how the staggered adjustment of wages can prolong wider adjustment, leading to extended bouts of above-target inflation.

The goal of monetary policy in such situations is not to prevent the energy shock from having any impact on prices at all (that would require such a painful adjustment of interests rates that the cost in terms of higher unemployment and lower incomes would make the cure far worse the disease) but instead to ensure that the change is a one-off adjustment in living costs, and that we avoid potential second effects whereby the adjustment to one shock becomes embedded in future price and wage setting, thereby contributing to persistent inflation above our 2 per cent target.

There are important differences today compared to where we were in 2022 that means the indirect and second round effects of this energy price shock might differ this time.

In early 2022, inflation was above 5 per cent even before the start of Russia’s invasion, reflecting supply bottlenecks and pent-up demand emerging from the pandemic. In contrast, last month’s headline inflation was 1.9 per cent.

The labour market was also in a different place four years ago, with historically high levels of job openings reflecting strong labour demand. This is not the case today, with job openings now close to pre-pandemic levels (2019) in most countries.

Finally, monetary policy was exceptionally accommodative up until June 2022, with a policy rate of minus 0.5 per cent.  In contrast, the current rate of 2 per cent is within the range of our estimates for the neutral rate of interest, that is, where monetary policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative. Inflation expectations are also anchored at our 2 per cent target.

But we must also be wary of complacency. After several years of above-target inflation it could be that households, businesses and financial markets are more sensitive to new shocks. We therefore need to be alert to the risk of inflation expectations becoming disanchored more quickly than before. In addition to inflation expectations – for consumers, firms, and markets – I will be closely monitoring a range of indicators to gauge the indirect and second round effects of this shock, including producer and consumer prices (not just changes in averages but the frequency and breadth of price changes across the basket), core inflation components (notably services and other domestic of inflation), wage trackers (including both the Indeed Wage Tracker developed with colleagues at the Central Bank and the ECB’s Negotiated Wage Tracker) and the evolution of firms’ profit margins.

Conclusion

As things stand today, risks to inflation have clearly moved to the upside, especially in the near-term, whereas risks to growth have moved to the downside. Inflation affects everyone (lower income households are most exposed to price movements because a greater proportion of their spending tends to be on energy-related goods and services) and, although monetary policy cannot prevent the energy shock from having an impact on prices, it can ensure that any change is a one-off adjustment in living costs. We are determined to deliver our 2 per cent medium-term target.

We will be publishing our own projections for the Irish economy next week.

Gabriel Makhlouf

Chart 1 | Euro area headline and core inflation (panels A and B) and growth (panel C) in the baseline, and under adverse and severe energy commodity price scenarios


Source: ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2026. Core inflation excludes energy and food prices. The March baseline scenarios include euro area interest rate path assumptions up to the cut-off date of 11 March 2026 as follows: “Market expectations for short-term interest rates have been revised up by 0.3 percentage points for 2026, by 0.5 percentage points for 2027 and by 0.3 percentage points for 2028, while long-term rates have been revised up by 0.1 percentage points throughout the projection horizon.”  The adverse and severe scenarios make no additional changes to this rate path.

EU Bonds – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

19 March 2026 Warning Notice

Warning Unauthorised Investment Firm/ Investment Business Firm 
Unauthorised Firm Name EU Bonds
Website https://eubonds.org 
Email Address Used [email protected] 
Phone Number Used +01 764 1220
Authorisation in Ireland EU Bonds is not authorised to operate as an investment firm or an investment business firm

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013. 

Suisse Equity- Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

19 March 2026 Warning Notice

Warning Unauthorised Investment Firm/ Investment Business Firm 
Unauthorised Firm Name Suisse Equity
Website https://suisseequity.com 
Email Addresses used
Phone number used +44 7577 040274
Authorisation in Ireland Suisse Equity is not authorised to operate as an investment firm or an investment business firm in Ireland

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013. 

Callanor -Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

19 March 2026 Warning Notice

Warning Unauthorised Investment Business Firm  
Unauthorised Firm Name Callanor 
Website https://callanor.com/ 
Email address used [email protected] 
Phone number used +353 1 661 3788
Authorisation in Ireland Callanor is not authorised as an investment business firm in Ireland.

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013.