No change to the policy rate: what I will be watching before September

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

24 July 2026 Blog

This week my ECB Governing Council colleagues and I decided to leave interest rates unchanged. The Deposit Facility Rate, through which we steer the monetary policy stance, remains at 2.25 per cent.

That decision followed June’s move, when the Governing Council raised rates for the first time since 2023, citing the inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices.

Those inflationary pressures have not gone away. Indeed, following the collapse of the truce and a return to hostilities, there is renewed upward pressure on energy prices. Despite this, the decision not to change rates this week primarily reflects our judgement that, with the effects of the June increase still working through the economy and with limited data since our last meeting, the right course is to observe carefully how the data evolve before drawing further conclusions. With updated projections at our next meeting in September we will be able to more confidently assess the appropriate stance in order to achieve our 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.

Inflation: a moving picture

The most recent euro area headline inflation estimate for June of 2.8 per cent was lower than some had anticipated, including us. Market surveys and our own analysis had pointed to something closer to 3 per cent. The main driver of the downside surprise was commodity, and primarily energy, prices, which fell through much of June. Since early July, however, energy prices have rebounded, and our latest internal estimate puts euro area inflation back in the region of 3 per cent for the euro area.

A new Staff Insights piece published today by Joe Marlow and Dilan Aydın Yakut (“Nowcasting Euro Area Inflation”) describes our framework for tracking inflation in something closer to real time. The June episode is a good illustration of why this kind of tool matters. The nowcasting model tracked the June cooling as it happened, and has since tracked the reversal. That granularity is useful for the Bank, and I hope for the broader public conversation about where near-term inflation is heading.

What I will be watching before September

July was a non-projection meeting, which means the Governing Council’s next full read of the economic outlook comes in September, including updated staff forecasts. Between now and then, we will have two further euro area inflation prints (for July and August) and a first estimate of Q2 GDP. In the context of ongoing volatility and a wide range of potential outcomes for growth and inflation depending on the path for energy prices (as the scenario analysis in March and June showed), this is meaningful new information.

A few things I will be paying particular attention to. First, whether the recent rebound in energy prices proves sustained or fades. That will be the single biggest determinant of headline inflation in the near term, as we saw more recently. Second, the path of core inflation, which has been more stable but which I do not take for granted, particularly given the typical pattern of staggered wage adjustment in the euro area. This will help us understand the extent to which indirect effects of the energy shock are intensifying or if second-round effects are emerging. Third, growth: the June staff projections put euro area GDP growth at 0.8 per cent for this year, and subject to downside risk. The transmission of June’s rate increase into credit conditions and broader activity will be something we monitor carefully.

The Irish Picture

The Irish economy entered this period of geopolitical uncertainty and energy-market volatility from a strong position, though as I noted in my pre-Budget letter last week, there are underlying vulnerabilities that deserve careful attention as we approach the autumn.

Irish inflation has broadly tracked the euro area pattern, rising sharply in March as energy prices jumped on the start of the war, before falling back a little in June to 3.2 per cent. I have Tracing energy shocks through the Irish supply chain: A new monitoring framework”) quantifies these channels. Because the estimates are static – not attempting to model dynamic supply and demand responses or second-round effects – they provide a clear baseline for monitoring how energy shocks propagate through the economy. Following an increase in energy commodity prices, around one quarter of the estimated increase in price level comes indirectly via the supply chain of non-energy goods and services, with the rest coming from direct effects.

The framework also identifies where these indirect effects are most pronounced. Transport services show the strongest impact, followed by clothing and textiles, transport goods (excluding fuels), household durables, alcohol and tobacco, and food. Labour-intensive services – health, financial services, restaurants and accommodation – show weaker indirect effects, since wages rather than energy and other inputs dominate their cost structures. For these services, how wages respond to the initial shock (the so-called ‘second-round’ effects) will be a factor in determining whether this episode feeds into more persistent, broad-based inflation.

Summing up

The Governing Council acted in June when the data indicated it was necessary. Yesterday’s decision to hold rates was a prudent, considered one. We remain firmly committed to returning inflation to our 2 per cent medium-term target and will continue to be guided by what the evidence tells us, meeting-by-meeting. September’s meeting, with its updated projections and a richer information set, will provide greater clarity on the path ahead. Until then, the data will keep moving, and so will our attention to it. Understanding these transmission channels – direct, indirect, and through wage adjustment – is essential to our assessment of inflation dynamics and our policy response. It is why we will be watching core inflation and wage developments so carefully in the months ahead.

Gabriel Makhlouf

Central Bank encourages public to have their say on designs for new euro banknotes

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

23 July 2026 Press Release

People across Ireland are invited to give their feedback on the shortlisted design proposals for the next series of euro banknotes, unveiled today by the European Central Bank (ECB).

These design proposals are based on two different themes – “European culture” and “Rivers and birds” – and on the associated motifs chosen to illustrate them.

Now, everyone in Ireland and Europe is invited to have their say following the decision of the ECB’s Governing Council to run an online survey on these ten design proposals. The public survey is available now and will remain open until 21 September 2026.

Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf, who sits on the ECB’s Governing Council, today said: “Euro banknotes are a powerful representation of our shared identity, diversity and values. This is an important opportunity for people to help shape the future of our currency. I encourage people in Ireland, and across Europe, to complete the survey over the coming weeks and share their views on the design proposals.”

The ECB Governing Council is expected to take the final decision on the new banknote design around the end of the year.

Read more about the ECB survey for the future euro banknotes.

Further Information

Media Relations: media@centralbank.ie

Bates Finance Limited (CLONE) – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

23 July 2026 Warning Notice

Warning: Unauthorised Investment Firm / Investment Business Firm
Unauthorised Firm Name Bates Finance Limited (CLONE)
Website https://www.batesfinance.co.uk/
Email addresses used info@batesfinance.co.uk
Phone number used 0124 594 4391
Authorisation in Ireland

Bates Finance Limited (CLONE) is not authorised to provide investment services in Ireland.

This unauthorised firm has cloned the details of authorised firm to pass itself off as legitimate to deceive consumers.

There is no connection between the legitimate firm and Bates Finance Limited (CLONE).

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800 or report an unauthorised firm directly to the Central Bank.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013.

Russell Administration Limited (CLONE) – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

23 July 2026 Warning Notice

Warning: Unauthorised Investment Firm / Investment Business Firm
Unauthorised Firm Name Russell Administration Limited (CLONE)
Website https://russelladministration.co.uk/ 
Email addresses used info@russelladministration.co.uk
Phone number used 0208 058 3679
Authorisation in Ireland

Russell Administration Limited (CLONE) is not authorised to provide investment services in Ireland.

This unauthorised firm has cloned the details of authorised firm to pass itself off as legitimate to deceive consumers.

There is no connection between the legitimate firm and Russell Administration Limited (CLONE).

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800 or report an unauthorised firm directly to the Central Bank.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013.

Reinforcing the foundations – openness through resilience in the face of change – Speech by Deputy Governor McMunn at PWC

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

23 July 2026 Speech

Good morning, I am delighted to be here and many thanks to Andrea for the invitation.1

I very much look forward to the discussion and to hearing from you, but first of all I would like to set the scene with some perspectives on the environment we are operating in.

Last month I set out my views on some of the key structural changes in the external environment underway, and how they are reshaping the financial system and in particular the funds sector.2

I would like to briefly re-iterate a number of those themes today – before turning to some recent supervisory work we have done, and some policy work to come.

Pace and scale – a decade of change

The first theme I would like to highlight is the pace and scale of change.

The Irish funds sector knows this only too well.

Over the last ten years the sector has more than tripled in size in terms of assets under management – from €1.6 trillion to €5.6 trillion in assets. And the number of Irish authorised investment funds has also significantly increased, up c. 50% – from 6,000 to 9,000 funds.

In addition to the growing scale and complexity of the sector, these 10 years have seen some fundamental changes take place in the global economy.

We have lived through a number of global shocks, from Brexit to Covid, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – as well as (geo)-politically induced market events: from the LDI crisis in 2022 to the market turmoil last April, and indeed the market volatility seen this March.

And in particular over the last 18 months we have seen an acceleration in the geo-political shifts and geo-economic fragmentation that have characterised the last decade.

In addition to geo-economic change, we are also of course witnessing a rapid acceleration in technological development, adoption and deployment – in particular related to frontier AI models.

Such technological change has the potential to be a profoundly impactful development for our society, our economy and our financial system – presenting great opportunities and benefits; but also significant risks and real challenges.

And it is crucial that the financial services sector responsibly seizes these opportunities to make our system better – while robustly managing the risks.

While change is constant, as we navigate this period I would highlight a couple of defining characteristics for me.

First, is that these rapid shifts are coming alongside other significant structural changes, most notably in our climate and in our demographics.

Though these latter developments may appear less urgent, they are also profound. And our challenge to overcome the ‘tragedy of the horizon’, is exacerbated by near term shocks and shifts, risking the costs of current inaction being compounded upon future generations.

The second characteristic  is that the speed, significance and confluence of all of these changes are altering the range of outcomes that are possible – which in many ways has widened considerably, increasing uncertainty, introducing unpredictability, and leading to questions as to what risks are truly in the tail.

This is a clear challenge which regulators and regulated-entities alike must contend with.

Resilience in the face of change

This brings me to the second theme I want to emphasise today – namely resilience in the face of change.

As I said last month resilience is increasingly crucial, with deep roots and strong foundations necessary to navigate and weather such challenge and change.

This means not just financial resilience, and managing liquidity and leverage-related risks – though these are essential. But also operational resilience and the fundamental importance of resilient governance and oversight arrangements and frameworks – supporting decision making capability, in particular in times of stress.

As I said before, the true measure of governance is how it performs when conditions deteriorate. Whether information flows with sufficient speed, whether escalation pathways are clear, and whether boards have the expertise and confidence to take difficult decisions when circumstances demand it.

And so I would re-iterate that resilient governance is not achieved through documentation alone – but rather through putting it into practice, through testing it, and through cultivating a culture in which challenge is welcomed and in which complacency is recognised as a risk in its own right.

Responding to change

The third theme I want to emphasise is responding to this changing world – for as I have said we must respond, proactively not reactively.

This includes embedding geo-political risks further into our risk management frameworks. It means building resilience for a wider, more complex and less predictable risk landscape.

And it means ensuring we do not take openness for granted –  but rather continue to advocate for it, while being strategic in how we ensure we preserve the benefits of openness in a fragmenting world.

For a global sector such as Ireland’s funds sector, this is particularly important. You are an example of the clear benefits of open global financial markets. And it is through your resilience and the strong foundations of governance and robust regulation that these benefits – for investors and the European economy – will be preserved.

It also includes ensuring we are adapting to the changing nature of resilience the changing world implies. Which means minding the tails and ensuring operational resilience is keeping pace with the evolving risk landscape – be it from cyber and sabotage risks related to geo-politics, or the material effect frontier AI models are having, and will have, on cyber security and resilience.

And finally, it means ensuring your governance and risk management capabilities and frameworks keep pace with this changing world – which includes ensuring governance outcomes and accountability continues regardless of the manner in which financial services is being delivered.

This is particularly important as advanced AI becomes widely adopted and deployed. While these are powerful tools, it is humans who choose to deploy them. Firms must be able to explain how the models work, who is accountable for their outputs, and how they are governed.

As my ECB colleague noted recently AI does not dilute responsibility. If anything, it raises the bar.3

And as these tools become more powerful and more prevalent, the principles of robust governance, responsibility and accountability will become more important, not less.

For central banks and regulators, we must respond too and keep pace with change – in terms of evolving markets, business models and technology – implying new ways of delivering financial services.

We have been responding: through our economic, financial stability and supervisory work related to geo-economic fragmentation4; through ensuring we are responding to the implications of AI across our organisation and our broad mandate;5 and through how we are responding to the changing financial system and the changing nature of money, across all parts of the Central Bank.6

We also do so through our ongoing regulatory and supervisory work, ensuring firms are meeting the standards now – as well as ensuring that the regulatory framework and these standards are fit for the future. For we seek to deliver our mandate and our safeguarding outcomes through the cycle, and through change – be it geo or macro-economic, technological, or regulatory.

Doing delegation well

All of these themes are relevant to the final subject I would like discuss today, one I know is of particular significance for the Irish funds sector – that is, delegation by fund management companies.

Let me state our position clearly at the outset: the Central Bank recognises that delegation is an important feature of the European funds model – delivering benefits for investors and supporting a well-functioning European market.

Delegation allows fund management companies to access specialist expertise – in portfolio management, in risk management, in distribution – wherever that expertise resides.

It enables a model in which Irish-authorised funds can offer investors access to the best investment talent globally, while also benefiting from the stability of the legislative and regulatory framework that Europe provides. And it facilitates global capital flows through global portfolios benefiting from scale and from efficiency.

In this way, done well, delegation can serve the best interests of investors and the wider economy.

But like everything, delegation is only beneficial when it is done well – which means robustly and on the basis of the firm principle that boards cannot delegate away responsibility and accountability7 – which means strong governance, meaningful oversight and substantive engagement with the risks and performance of delegated functions.

This has always been and remains our position, and is why our regulatory and supervisory work is so focused on delivering that outcome.

To support this we have articulated a clear framework for what we expect of fund management companies, and have undertaken a number of regulatory interventions and supervisory thematics over the last decade.8

And as the sector and the risk landscape continues to evolve, we will continue to do so– ensuring risks are well managed, responsibility is retained, and the framework and practices continue to be fit for purpose, both today and tomorrow, in the context of this change.

With this in mind, over the last year we engaged in a supervisory review of delegation practices in fund management companies, with a particular focus on governance, oversight arrangements, and the effectiveness of control frameworks.

For this work we surveyed all 121 fund management companies using both quantitative and qualitative methods. We then narrowed our focus to 41 deep-dive desk-based assessments9, and ultimately conducted 21 onsite inspections of FMCs representing over 35% of Assets under Management.10

Today, we are publishing this review (PDF 268.09KB). and the findings of that work.11 As set out in the review, our supervisory work found that fund management companies have implemented and recognise the importance of quality governance, decision-making, risk-management and control in meeting regulatory obligations and their responsibility to their investors.

These findings reflect the important progress that has been made over recent years, including in the implementation of the Central Banks’ Fund Management Company Guidance, responding to our supervisory work and expectations, and responding to the demands of an evolving operating environment.   

That said, the supervisory work also highlighted some areas where certain elements of governance arrangements and operating models in certain FMCs needed to be enhanced – including board independence, over-reliance on group level committees, resourcing concerns, lack of contingency planning and limitations with data access.

Such findings – both good practices and areas for improvement – underline our view that to ensure delegation delivers its important benefits for investors and European capital markets, it must be accompanied by robust governance and oversight.

Individual FMCs have already received their findings and corresponding supervisory actions. But to reinforce this, and to highlight to the broader sector what good looks like, and what we expect, we are publishing the findings of our review.

Our expectation of what good looks like is clear: governance must be substantive, not performative. Oversight must be real, not nominal. And the management company must be genuinely capable of fulfilling the role that regulation assigns to it.

This is lived and evidenced by the majority of fund management companies, delivering strong and resilient delegation oversight.

But as the sector and the risk landscape changes, so too does the nature of resilience.

Building for the future – responding to change

In this regard, our supervisory work also highlighted something I think we are all aware of – that the sector has changed significantly over the last decade, in terms of size, complexity and business models.

This comes alongside wider changes to the regulatory framework for financial services over the last few years, including the Individual Accountability Framework and AIFMD II review, as well as a fundamentally changing global risk landscape, including rapid technological change, that I have outlined today.

All of this emphasises my view that while openness continues to be a crucial part of Ireland and Europe’s economic and financial sector model, resilience is becoming increasingly important.

Which, to repeat, is not just  financial resilience and operational resilience,  but also the resilience of governance frameworks and oversight arrangements, of which for the funds sector delegation is a crucial part.

And so as the sector’s size, complexity and business models change, as the risk environment evolves, and as we rapidly transition to a technologically different world, the regulatory framework must evolve too – to ensure it is fit for the future, recognising the increasing importance of resilience and robust governance in the face of this change.

This is why we plan to undertake a review this year of our governance arrangements for fund management companies – to ensure governance and responsibility requirements are fit for this changing landscape, reinforcing both the resilience of the sector and the benefits of the delegation model.

This is in line with our commitment to Regulating and Supervising well – ensuring the regulatory framework supports a well-run, well-regulated and well-functioning sector operating in the best interest of consumers and the wider economy.12

Areas in scope of the review include simplifying and making clearer the Fund Management Company Guidance; simplifying, and reinforcing the PCF framework for fund management companies in line with our focus on simplifying the PCF framework more broadly; and enhancing our Governance requirements, including considering how we might proportionately apply the SEAR framework to the funds sector.

While we will do this in line with our simplification principles – including clarity, transparency and proportionality – as I have said before simplification does not mean no new rules. And proportionality cuts both ways – with more expected of larger and more sophisticated entities.

As we develop these proposals we will engage extensively with stakeholders, with the aim of consulting on changes in early 2027.

Conclusion

Let me sum up.

We are living through a time of significant challenge and change – most acutely in the form of geo-economic fragmentation and rapid technological transformation.

Navigating and capitalising on such changes requires the sector and regulators to be forward-looking – to continue to adapt, while sticking firmly to our principles.

In that regard, openness and innovation are two key pillars of our economy and our financial sector – and will continue to be.

But they only thrive when built on strong foundations – which for our financial sector means a strong regulatory and supervisory framework, with resilient, well-governed firms delivering in the best interests of consumers, investors and the wider economy.

Looking ahead, as the great Roman philosopher Seneca once said: fate leads the willing but drags the reluctant.13

And so we must be willing: willing to proactively respond to change, willing to reinforce our foundations, and willing to adapt – so that we continue to deliver a stable, resilient and trustworthy financial sector, fit for a changing world. 

Thank you



[1] Many thanks to Cian O’Laoide and Catherine Dwyer for their help preparing these remarks.

[9] Sample represented 30% of all fund management companies, €3.75trn AuM and 4,600+ funds

[10] Selection criteria included scale, complexity of strategies, location of delegates and output from desk based review. Sample represented 17% of firms, €1.9trn AUM and 3000+ funds

[13] See Seneca the Younger, Epistles CVII

Central Bank appoints external reviewer for independent review of its enforcement activities

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

22 July 2026 Press Release

Central Bank of Ireland has commissioned an independent review of its enforcement activities.

Enforcement is a core component of the Central Bank’s regulatory framework. It supports credible deterrence and accountability, promotes high standards of conduct and, through transparent outcomes, supports trust and confidence in the financial system.

The financial system has become larger, more complex and more interconnected over the last decade. The regulatory and legislative framework has also evolved significantly, alongside changes to the Central Bank’s approach to regulation and supervision and to its enforcement framework and processes.

Against this background, Governor Gabriel Makhlouf has decided that it is timely to undertake an independent review of the effectiveness and efficiency of the Central Bank’s enforcement activities.

The review will be led by Josephine Feehily, former Chair of the Revenue Commissioners and first Chair of the Policing Authority.

The review will consider the performance of the Central Bank’s enforcement activities and the role of enforcement within the wider supervisory framework. It will examine structures and processes for enforcement activity and decision-making; case-selection criteria and processes; timeliness; and transparency for the public, firms and individuals who may be impacted. It will have regard to best practice by regulators performing similar functions domestically and internationally and applicable international standards and principles.

To support the review, Ms Feehily will engage with senior management and staff across the Central Bank and with external stakeholders as considered necessary.

A report, including recommendations, will be provided to the Governor and will be published in due course.

ENDS

 

Further Information

Media Relations: media@centralbank.ie

 

Notes to Editors

View the Terms of Reference (PDF 105.58KB) for the Review

Biography – Josephine Feehily

Josephine Feehily has over 20 years’ experience at the most senior levels in the Irish public service.

During her career she held a wide range of positions including leading the Office of the Revenue Commissioners, – the Irish Tax and Customs agency – recognised as one of the most agile and digitally enabled public bodies. In Revenue, she was Commissioner from 1998 and executive Chairman from 2008 to 2015. During her Revenue career, Josephine was Chair of the World Customs Organisation and Chair of the OECD Forum for Tax Administration – a forum of leaders of advanced Tax Authorities.  In these various roles, she interacted with Ministers, the most senior ranks of the public service, business leaders and international bodies and gained a deep understanding of the issues facing Government decision-makers and businesses.

More recently, as part of a suite of reform measures in the Justice sector, she established and chaired the first Policing Authority in Ireland, to oversee the performance by the Garda Síochána of its policing functions and to make senior Garda appointments independent of Government.  She was Chair of the Pensions Commission established by Government to review aspects of Ireland’s State pension system and the sustainability of the Social Insurance Fund.

Currently, Josephine is Chair of the Governing Body of the Technological University of the Shannon, a member of the External Oversight Body of the Defence Forces and a board member of the Foundation for Fiscal Studies. 

Aoncfd (CLONE) – Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

17 July 2026 Warning Notice

 Warning: Unauthorised Investment Firm / Investment Business Firm
 Unauthorised Firm Name Aoncfd (CLONE)
 Websites
  • https://aoncfd.com
  • https://client.aoncfd.com/app.php
 Email addresses used support@aoncfd.com
 Purported address Iveagh Court 6, Harcourt Road, Dublin 2, Irlanda
 Phone number used None
 Authorisation in Ireland Aoncfd (Clone) is not authorised to operate as an investment firm or investment business firm in Ireland.
 Additional information

It has come to the attention of the Central Bank of Ireland (‘Central Bank’) that a clone entity Aoncfd (Clone) claims to be based in Dublin, Ireland and offers online CFD (Contract for Difference) trading services internationally.  Aoncfd (Clone) is not authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland to provide investment services and is not authorised to operate as an investment firm / investment business firm in Ireland.

Aoncfd (Clone) copied details, including part-Name, the Dublin Address and CONSOB Registration details ‘5141’ of a legitimate firm called Aon Solutions Ireland Limited (C29118) which is authorised by the Central Bank.  It should be noted that there is no connection whatsoever between the Central Bank authorised entity and the unauthorised clone entity.

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800 or report an unauthorised firm directly to the Central Bank.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013.

Codeve Insurance Co DAC (CLONE)- Central Bank of Ireland Issues Warning on Unauthorised Firm

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

17 July 2026 Warning Notice

Warning: Unauthorised Insurance Intermediary and Insurance/ Reinsurance Firm
Unauthorised Firm Name Codeve Insurance Co DAC (CLONE)
Website address
  • https://www.codeveinsurance.com/ 
Email addresses used
  • contact@codeveinsurance.com
  • legal@codeve.com 
  • Investorrelations@bournrockinvest.com
Authorisation in Ireland This firm is not authorised to provide insurance/reinsurance services and/or insurance intermediary/distribution services in Ireland.
Additional information

This Unauthorised Firm has cloned the name and details of a Central Bank authorised firm and has been seeking to pass itself off as the legitimate firm, CODEVE Insurance Company dac, in order to deceive consumers.

It should be noted that there is no connection between the Central Bank authorised firm and the Unauthorised Firm. 

Notes:

  1. Any person wishing to contact the Central Bank with information regarding such firms / persons may telephone (01) 224 5800 or report an unauthorised firm directly to the Central Bank.
  2. For more information on how to protect yourself from financial scams, please visit www.centralbank.ie/financialscams
  3. The name of the above firm is published under section 53 of the Central Bank (Supervision and Enforcement) Act 2013.

Opening Statement by Governor of Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf, at the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation, and Taoiseach

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

15 July 2026 Speech

Cathaoirleach and Committee members, thank you for the invitation to be here today. I am joined by my colleagues Deputy Governor for Monetary and Financial Stability, Vasileios Madouros, and Colm Kincaid, Deputy Governor for Consumer and Investor Protection.

The Economic Outlook

Let me begin with the economic outlook.

The global economy continues to face challenges and heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with implications for energy prices and global supply chains.

For Ireland, Modified Domestic Demand growth is projected to moderate due to higher energy prices weighing on real incomes and consumer spending, though multinational-led AI-related investment will provide support. Inflation forecasts have been revised upwards to 3.5 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2027, with the outlook for international energy prices substantially higher than assumed in our March Bulletin.

Events in the Middle East remain uncertain, not least when the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes is likely to be fully alleviated and the extent to which trade normalises.  Our Quarterly Bulletin presents scenarios ranging from swift resolution (lower inflation, stronger growth) to prolonged disruption (higher inflation, weaker growth).  Even in optimistic scenarios, inflation pressures persist.

More broadly, it is clear that we are living in a period where the frequency of large external shocks has increased.  Ireland and Europe’s policy frameworks – and the policy decisions themselves – have to adjust to this new reality so as to build long-term economic resilience in the economy. 

In my view, we need to prioritise and focus on a number of areas including: (1) growing the supply side of the economy, particularly housing, transport, energy and water infrastructure, (2) strengthening the indigenous business sector to complement foreign direct investment, (3) building fiscal buffers through prudent fiscal policy and rigorous expenditure control, (4) supporting household resilience by enabling greater retail participation in financial markets and improving access to debt and equity financing for domestic businesses and (5) working with partners to strengthen Europe’s economic infrastructure.  Given externally-driven price pressures and tighter monetary policy, I would also emphasise a broadly neutral fiscal stance is appropriate to avoid contributing to inflationary pressures.  

EU Prospectus Regulation

I would like to turn now to the issue of prospectuses.

I appreciate how important the Israeli Bond Programme has been to this Committee, and indeed the Irish public.

As I have said before, the Central Bank is an institution established by law, empowered by law, and must always act within and in line with the law.  We must carry out the statutory tasks and functions which have been assigned to us, in the manner they have been assigned to us.  This is integral to our role as a public institution, as an independent central bank in a modern economy, and for the rule of law in Ireland and the European Union.

The Central Bank has always sought to assist the Committee in its work on this issue. I have discussed it with Members on a number of occasions, and we have followed up with additional information in writing.  As with all of our work, I value our engagement with the Oireachtas, and we seek to provide as much assistance and information as possible, within our mandate and without breaching confidentiality obligations.

I want to repeat what I have said before to this Committee that I am appalled and saddened by the horrific loss of life and destruction we have seen in Gaza and the wider Middle East.  I speak for everyone at the Central Bank when I say that we want to see an end to hostilities by all parties.

But I have also set out the Central Bank’s role on the issue of prospectuses and how it is governed by EU law.

Our role is a very specific one, and it is governed by the EU Prospectus Regulation which is a disclosure regime. The role of the Central Bank is to ensure a prospectus has been drawn up in compliance with the disclosure requirements of the Prospectus Regulation. We are required to approve a prospectus if it meets the standards of completeness, comprehensibility and consistency imposed by the Regulation.

As such the Central Bank does not endorse the issuer or the securities by way of the prospectus approval, but rather confirms that it meets these required standards.

As I set out in my letter to you this week, due to professional secrecy obligations, we cannot provide details regarding our discussions with individual issuers, including the nature and timing of any requests. The Central Bank is subject to confidentiality obligations pursuant to the EU Prospectus Regulation and Section 33AK of the Central Bank Act 1942.  Again this is the law, and we must act within and in line with this law, though I understand that can be difficult and frustrating for the Committee in the current circumstances.

I note that there have been a number of statements that the Central Bank could refuse to approve a prospectus – or indeed its transfer to another competent authority for approval – on the basis of certain international law rulings and opinions, namely on the basis of the ICJ provisional rulings in the ongoing South Africa – Israel case and/or on the basis of the ICJ opinion on the Occupied Palestinian Territory. While these cases could lead to EU sanctions being imposed upon Israel, as matters stand there are no EU sanctions imposed upon Israel restricting its ability to issue securities, such as the sanctions that were imposed upon Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

The Central Bank continues to keep under review its compliance with the applicable international, legal and regulatory frameworks in discharging its role in relation to  the Israeli bond prospectuses.

Fitness and Probity

Turning to Fitness and Probity, the Central Bank Reform Act 2010 introduced a statutory fitness and probity regime for regulated financial services. It was one of the key legislative reforms in financial services following the financial crisis. The regime protects the public interest by requiring that individuals in key positions in regulated firms are:

  • Competent and capable,
  • Honest, ethical, and act with integrity, and
  • Financially sound.

Under the Act, individuals performing specified functions in regulated firms must comply with fitness and probity obligations on an ongoing basis and individuals performing senior roles must have the approval of the Central Bank before being appointed.  Last year, the Central Bank granted 2,684 such approvals and there are currently approximately 22,500 live approvals in our financial system.

The Act also provides that the Central Bank may carry out an investigation where there is reason to suspect an individual’s fitness and probity to perform a controlled function role. If, following an investigation, an individual is found to lack the required fitness and probity, the Central Bank may prohibit them for a specified time or indefinitely from performing certain roles in a regulated firm.  To date, the Central Bank has issued prohibition notices in thirteen cases.  Eleven of these prohibition notices were agreed with the relevant person and so did not require Court confirmation. Two were not agreed and therefore required application to the High Court for confirmation.

It is in this context that I wish to address a recent decision by the High Court not to confirm a prohibition notice imposed by the Central Bank. The decision followed the Central Bank imposing a prohibition on the individual concerned on 2 February 2022, for a period of 1 year (i.e. until February 2023).

As the prohibition was not agreed by the individual, the Central Bank applied to the High Court on 28 March 2022 to confirm the prohibition notice.  On 2 May 2025, the High Court notified the parties of its decision not to confirm the prohibition notice. The Court delivered its written judgment on 31 March 2026, which was published on 17 April 2026. The High Court found that the individual’s entitlement to natural and constitutional justice and basic fairness of procedures was not observed by the Central Bank in this case.

I acknowledge that investigations and prohibitions carry serious implications for individuals and take the High Court’s judgment very seriously.  We are in the process of mapping the judgment against our current procedures to make the necessary changes to incorporate its findings.  In fact we have already made a number of changes since the prohibition decision in February 2022. For example:

  • The Central Bank (Individual Accountability Framework) Act 2023 amended the Central Bank Act 2010 to provide that a prohibition notice that has not been agreed by the individual does not now take effect until either agreed by the person under investigation or confirmed by the High Court. In other words, persons are no longer prohibited while the Court confirmation process is ongoing.
  • In April 2023, following these amendments, we published revised regulations and guidance on fitness and probity investigations, suspensions and prohibitions. These have strengthened procedural safeguards for individuals subject to investigation.
  • Prohibition decision-makers are now appointed by the Central Bank from a panel appointed by the Minister for Finance, to further safeguard their independence in making these decisions.
  • In July 2024, the Central Bank published an independent review of the Fitness and Probity Regime undertaken by Mr Andrea Enria.  While the review focused on the gatekeeper pillar of the regime, the specific recommendations around fairness, efficiency and transparency of process have been adopted by the Central Bank into the broader operation of the regime, including the investigations pillar. For example, at the earliest point in the investigation process, individuals are provided with an overview of the end-to-end process and kept up to date on the progress of the investigation through regular engagement.

Separately, earlier this year we concluded a public consultation on guidance to provide further clarity and transparency on our approach to prohibition decisions. We aim to publish this guidance later this year.

The Central Bank is committed to implementing the statutory regime for fitness and probity in financial services.  We will continue to look to improve how we do so, including implementing fully the findings of the recent High Court judgment.

Conclusion

My colleagues and I are happy to take your questions.

Governor’s Pre-Budget Letter Published

Source: Central Bank of Ireland

13 July 2026 Press Release

Central Bank of Ireland has today (13 July) published the annual letter (PDF 3.17MB) from Governor Gabriel Makhlouf to the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance ahead of Budget 2027.

In his letter, the Governor underscores the importance of building economic resilience in the face of heightened global uncertainty and structural economic transitions.  He highlights the need to prioritise five key areas:

  • Growing the supply-side capacity of the economy, particularly housing, transport, energy and water infrastructure;
  • Strengthening the indigenous business sector to complement foreign direct investment and enhance economic resilience;
  • Building fiscal buffers through prudent fiscal policy and rigorous expenditure control;
  • Supporting household resilience by enabling greater retail participation in financial markets and improving access to debt and equity financing for domestic businesses; and
  • Working with partners to strengthen Europe’s economic infrastructure and to develop a new set of multilateral trading rules that deliver certainty and stability.

“Ireland’s economic performance presents reasons for optimism but also clear reminders of the need for vigilance,” Governor Makhlouf said. “Sound policy decisions today can help steer the economy through a turbulent international environment, deliver sustainable economic progress and build the resilience that the country needs.”

The Governor warned of emerging fiscal pressures, noting that current Government projections show expenditure growth outpacing revenue growth in the coming years. “If expenditure overruns persist, the underlying budget deficit could rise to €25.7 billion or 5.8 per cent of GNI* by 2030. This would deplete fiscal buffers, limiting capacity to respond to future negative shocks, while adding to domestic inflationary pressures,” he cautioned.

A key concern is the increasing reliance on corporation tax receipts, which now account for 23 per cent of total general government revenue, up from 12 per cent previously. The Governor noted that just 10 companies were responsible for 56 per cent of all corporation tax receipts in 2025.

“While corporation tax receipts are likely to increase further in 2026, I am concerned about the long-term sustainability of the current high levels of revenue. A broader tax base is needed to help mitigate the risks from a possible loss of corporation tax receipts and to fund known spending pressures,” Governor Makhlouf said.

The Governor also commented on delivery of public investment, noting that Government has doubled its nominal public investment since 2019, and that this investment is potentially transformative.  He said: “Addressing infrastructure deficits in a timely manner would help to reduce inflationary pressures, and reducing fossil fuel dependency will build resilience and contribute to meeting emission reduction targets. Achieving value for money is difficult in an economy at full employment and in the face of externally-driven cost shocks, but expenditure discipline, combined with prioritising public projects that yield the largest spillovers to the private sector is key to delivering gains from planned investment.”   

The Central Bank is also calling for an effective, binding, domestic fiscal framework based on four guiding principles: sustainability, economic cycle smoothing, simplicity, and a balance between flexibility and discipline.

The Governor concluded: “Above average growth since 2021 has benefitted the public finances.  Combined with surging corporation tax revenue, the headline budgetary position has been in surplus since 2022, despite large expenditure increases and some tax cuts. 

“However, this favourable headline position rests on somewhat unstable foundations.

“Our current economic conditions present a window of opportunity to strengthen the fiscal framework. But this window will not remain open indefinitely.”