Coronavirus crisis calls for different methods of teaching

Source: Government of the Netherlands

Health is the government’s top priority when it comes to children, young people, teachers and support staff. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has shown convincingly that closing all schools will have little effect. The health risks to children and young people are low. Children and young people play a very limited role in spreading the virus. RIVM stands by its recommendations. It’s important that children and young people can continue with their education , whether they are at school or at home. In this time of crisis, we have to consider alternative ways of teaching. This is what education ministers Arie Slob and Ingrid van Engelshoven write in a letter to the House of Representatives in which they discuss the situation in primary, secondary and secondary vocational education.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak may lead to situations in which teaching will need to be organised differently, because there are fewer pupils, students, teachers and support staff.

In these situations, priority will be given to:

  • Lessons for secondary schools pupils and students at schools for secondary vocational education preparing for their leaving examinations;
  • lessons for pupils in the final year of primary school preparing for secondary school;
  • teaching and childcare for the children of parents who need to be able to continue working, for example healthcare and emergency workers.

If children and young people have to stay at home, teaching will be organised for them too, wherever possible. Schools will receive help in continuing to provide the best possible education in the circumstances. Some lessons can be given online, enabling schools to respond to the recommendations issued on 12 March.

The coronavirus crisis and the measures to deal with it have led to much concern and an emotional response among schools and parents. Mr Slob and Ms Van Engelshoven understand people’s concerns. In a bid to provide more clarity on what these measures will mean for schools, they have entered into talks with the sector councils and trade unions.

Distance learning, regional cooperation and facilitation of teachers and support staff on whom even greater demands are no being placed, are some the issues the education ministers will be exploring and fleshing out together with the sector councils and trade unions. Secondary vocational education institutions have offered to look at how students can help provide childcare, particularly for the children of parents who have to go to work.

Statutory target again for gender balance on company boards

Source: Government of the Netherlands

The government intends to maintain the statutory target for the ratio of men to women on the executive and supervisory boards of large public and limited liability companies. The cabinet has agreed to a proposal on this by security and justice minister Ard van der Steur and education minister Jet Bussemaker.

The plan is based on the government’s Business Monitor 2012-2015, which shows that although the gender ratio on company boards has improved slightly since 2015, it still fails to do justice to the wealth of female talent available. The government attaches great importance to a balanced distribution of seats on company boards, and wants to actively boost the percentage of women to prevent so much talent going to waste. The statutory target applies to 4,900 companies.

A balanced distribution would mean that at least 30% of the seats are held by women and 30% by men. If this target is not met, an explanation must be given in the directors’ report. Under the new bill, the target ratio – which lapsed on 1 January 2016 – will be extended to 31 December 2019. There will be a review in the spring of 2017 to track progress, followed by an audit in 2019.

The intention to extend the statutory target for gender balance on company boards was announced in a letter that the education minister sent to parliament on 16 November 2015, which discussed the results of the Business Monitor 2012-2015, as presented by the Talent to the Top Monitoring Commission.

The cabinet has agreed to submit the bill to the Council of State for an advisory opinion. The bill and the advisory opinion will be published when they are presented to the House of Representatives.

Cabinet prohibits Holocaust denial

Source: Government of the Netherlands

It will become explicitly prohibited to publicly condone, deny or trivialize the horrors of the Holocaust. The Cabinet has resolved this at the suggestion of Minister Yeşilgöz-Zegerius of Justice and Security. Discrimination and racism are already prohibited. With this ban, victims, and their relatives, of genocide and other war crimes will soon also receive specific protection against particularly offensive statements that deny and trivialize these types of international crimes.

Minister Yeşilgöz-Zegerius:

“Denial of these kinds of heinous crimes against humanity is unfortunately commonplace. For example, we regularly see the monster of anti-Semitism rearing its head. This concerns me tremendously and should not be left unaddressed, as the lesson of the Holocaust is not just a history lesson. It is a lesson affecting the here and now. It is a lesson on discrimination, exclusion and ultimately: annihilation. It is a lesson on humanity and compassion. It is about good and evil, and speaking up when you witness a shift from one to the other. Let us continue to tell these stories, as the victims of these crimes are increasingly unable to do so themselves. Not timidly and in whispers, but confidently and with conviction.”

With this specific criminal prohibition, the cabinet is implementing European obligations to explicitly criminalize certain forms of publicly condoning, denying or substantially trivializing genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. Insulting forms of condoning, denying or trivializing these international crimes will be punishable by a maximum prison sentence of 1 year. The prohibition is a component of the Bill to re-implement European criminal law.

Increased customization of sentencing

Source: Government of the Netherlands

Sentencing can be made more suitable and person-centred. This is the outcome of an investigatory analysis of the current sentencing system by Minister Franc Weerwind for Legal Protection. Each crime and each offender is unique. It is therefore essential that the punishment is appropriate for the offender. Weerwind therefore identified nine opportunities to optimize customized sentencing. Regarding these, he is submitting a letter to the House of Representatives.

“Putting the judge in a position to impose more customized sentencing ensures a safer country. It prevents recidivism and increases the effectiveness of the system in achieving sentencing objectives. This analysis is a great contribution, and we can prepare the building blocks for the following cabinet to continue this development,”

states Minister Franc Weerwind.

The analysis was therefore conducted with the criminal justice chain and scientists to determine whether our current sentencing system sufficiently considers which sentence is most appropriate. By imposing a penalty, we compensate injustice. In doing so, we do justice to victims and work to prevent crime recurrence.

One of the opportunities explored is for convicts to serve their sentence from the outset in a limited-security section of the prison so that they do not lose their jobs or homes. Another is for community service to be expanded to include care and learning elements. This contributes to the successful completion of community service and to preventing the criminal from re-offending. Additionally, the judge occasionally lacks specific information when imposing a sentence or deciding whether someone should remain incarcerated pending the hearing of the criminal case. If the judge receives advice from the probation service more often at an early stage, the judge can better decide whether to detain a suspect.

With the elaboration of these nine opportunities, Weerwind is responding to a motion by House of Representatives member Joost Sneller (D66). Given the caretaker status of the cabinet, decisions on the implementation of measures must be made by the successive ministers involved.

Use of personal data for the objective of harassment to become criminal offence

Source: Government of the Netherlands

Sharing another individual’s personal data with the intention of harassment will become a criminal offence. Today, the Senate passed the bill to criminalise the use of personal data for harassment purposes – also known as doxing. This legislation is expected to come into force on 1 January 2024.

The phenomenon of doxing is not uncommon. Personal data, such as addresses and phone numbers, as well as private information about family members, is circulated in app groups so that this information can be used to instil fear in others. This has a significant impact on the people who are harassed in this way. They fear for their safety and that of their loved ones. They can no longer express their opinions without concern. Or they are no longer able to perform their professional duties. This affects our fundamental freedoms, and the functioning of our democratic rule of law.

It is often aid workers, police officers, journalists and politicians who become victims of doxing. But scientists, opinion makers or municipal employees are also confronted with people distributing or forwarding their personal data with the objective of harassment. Earlier, the House of Representatives and employers such as the police also expressed concern about their employees and called for a criminal justice approach to this problem. Doxing is not limited to certain professions; people can face this for a range of reasons. These include a person posting a photo and phone number of an ex-partner on a dubious online forum to instil fear in them.

Justice and Security Minister Yeşilgöz-Zegerius: “Keep your hands off our social workers, police officers and others who dedicate themselves in any way to our free society! Spreading private data to instil fear in another person is absolutely unacceptable. Journalists, scientists and politicians must always be able to speak freely. We cannot and must not accept that families no longer feel safe at home. I am therefore pleased that the Senate also agrees with this bill and that we are jointly drawing a line: anyone can become a victim of doxing and we must be able to protect them against it.”

Much harassment behaviour is already punishable. Think of threats and stalking. However, harassment through the use of personal data is often not criminally actionable in practice. For example, because there is no threat of a serious crime or a systematic invasion of the individual’s privacy. Obtaining, distributing or otherwise making available identifying personal data of another person or a third party with the aim of instilling fear in that other person, causing severe disturbances to that other person or seriously hindering that person in the performance of his or her duties or profession will be punishable by a maximum term of imprisonment of two years or a fine of up to EUR 22,500. The maximum jail term will be increased by one-third in the event of doxing against persons with a specific profession, such as mayors, politicians, judges, lawyers, journalists and police officers.

With the new law, police and prosecutors will have broader possibilities to act against doxing. In addition, the victim can also initiate their own civil proceedings if it is known who posted the offending content online. Compensation and the online removal of the offending content can then be demanded. If the offender is not known, the intermediary hosting the content can always be notified. Intermediaries such as internet providers and online platforms have a role to act if they are aware that their platforms or servers are hosting infringing or unlawful content.

Senate approves UAE treaties against organised crime

Source: Government of the Netherlands
The Senate approved two bilateral treaties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) today to address cross-border organised crime. The agreements include a treaty on providing mutual legal assistance and a treaty on extradition. They will enter into force after publication in the Official Gazette. The bilateral treaties form a component of Justice and Security Minister Yeşilgöz-Zegerius’ broader agenda for increased international cooperation in tackling organised subversive crime.

Request for 90,000 Ukranian refugee accommodation spaces to remain unchanged at this stage

Source: Government of the Netherlands

Currently, the refugee inflow from Ukraine is lower than projected in the 2023 forecast. Consequently, the stipulated commitment of effort to security regions and municipalities remains unchanged for the time being. We therefore ask security regions and municipalities to continue working towards 90,000 refugee accommodation spaces even after 1 July. The situation in Ukraine remains unpredictable, so we must continue to take into account an unexpected increase in the inflow. In late 2022, State Secretary Van der Burg of Justice and Security requested security regions and municipalities to realise 90,000 refugee accommodation spaces from Ukraine by 1 July 2023. This number of accommodation spaces is based on the 2023 inflow forecast issued early this year. 

Forecast 

As the current inflow is lower than expected, the forecast from earlier this year will be reassessed and we will determine whether there is reason to adjust the accommodation capacity. The results will be available at the end of August and safety regions and municipalities will be informed. 

Inflow 

There are currently almost 95,000 refugees from Ukraine registered in the municipal Key Register of Persons (BRP). Over 76,000 of them are accommodated in municipal reception centres. A steady inflow of refugees is ongoing and refugees from Ukraine are expected to continue arriving in the Netherlands over the coming period. Especially as the conflict is prolonged. We therefore continue to ask security regions and municipalities to continue working towards 90,000 accommodation spaces for the time being.

Support package for jobs and economy to be continued in third quarter

Source: Government of the Netherlands

The outlook for economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic is positive and the virus appears to be on the wane. However, there are still many uncertainties for workers and businesses. Some businesses have had to draw heavily on their reserves. The government therefore plans to extend the support package for jobs and the economy into the third quarter of 2021. It is also taking additional measures to help businesses deal with their increased debt burden.

The announced extension of the support package is expected to cost €6 billion. The government has now provided a total of €80 billion to support businesses and workers during the coronavirus pandemic.

The government wants to help as many fundamentally healthy companies as possible to weather the crisis. Continuing with support measures for too long is risky, because it makes normal economic development more difficult. On the other hand, there is still great uncertainty about the near future and some businesses have run out of reserves. The support packages are designed to be responsive to changing needs: higher losses in turnover will trigger extra support. But as the economy opens up further, businesses will be able to generate more turnover and will grow out of the support packages.

The return to a healthy economy, with normal economic dynamics, is very important for the Netherlands’ earning power. In view of the current situation and developments, it has now been decided to continue the package in the third quarter. The government will continue to monitor the situation closely and address any issues that arise.

TVL and NOW

The government plans to continue the Fixed Costs Grant Scheme (TVL) and the Temporary Emergency Scheme for Job Retention (NOW) in the third quarter. In order to better support startups, growing businesses and businesses that have got into difficulties as a result of the standard reference period for calculating a TVL grant, they have been able to choose between two reference periods since the start of the second quarter. In addition, the TVL grant ceiling for large companies will be raised to €1.2 million for the second quarter. The new reference month for NOW grants will be February 2021. The scheme’s extension and adjustment are expected to cost €2 billion.

TOZO and TONK

The government also intends to continue the Self-employment Income Support and Loan Scheme (TOZO) and the Temporary Support Scheme for Necessary Costs (TONK) in the third quarter. When future applications are being considered, TOZO will focus more on supporting and encouraging businesses so that they can get back on their own feet as quickly as possible. Repayment of TOZO working capital loans has been deferred by six months to 1 January 2022. Until then, no interest will be charged. The term of the loans has also been extended from 42 to 60 months. The Minister of Social Affairs and Employment has asked the parties concerned to apply this scheme generously, give it more publicity and extend its reach. Several large municipalities have already announced their intention to do so.

The government is also taking a number of measures to ease the debt burden of businesses and improve their financial position.

Concurrent use of NOW and TVL

Starting from phase 3 of NOW (i.e. the grant periods from October 2020), TVL grants will no longer count as turnover when calculating NOW grants. This change means that many employers will receive more money when applying for a definitive grant after the start of phase 3. This will give them more breathing space and help them stand on their own feet again. The measure will cost around €1.5 billion.

Tax measures

Businesses can start later and take longer to pay off the tax debt they have built up as a result of the coronavirus crisis. They will now only have to start paying from 1 October 2022 and will have five years to do so, instead of having three years from 1 October 2021. Businesses are, however, expected to start paying tax again as normal from 1 July 2021.

The payment conditions will also be further relaxed. Late payment interest, an incentive to pay tax on time, will gradually return to the old level. This means that on 1 January 2022, late payment interest will be set at 1% instead of 4%, and will then be raised step by step, until it reaches 4% on 1 January 2024.

At present, over 250,000 businesses have been granted tax deferrals worth a total of €16 billion. This has therefore been a key measure in supporting businesses through these difficult times. Many businesses have already paid at least part of the amount they owe; a total of €36 billion in deferred tax was outstanding. To prevent inequality between businesses, no generic waiver of outstanding tax debts has been granted.

The government wants to provide viable businesses with further help if the above measures are not sufficient for them to continue. The Tax and Customs Administration can help by adopting a flexible stance, especially if other creditors do the same. The government is holding talks on this matter with such creditors. Roundtable discussions will be organised shortly to accelerate the process. Possible measures include creditors giving up their preferential status.

Certain other tax measures taken due to the pandemic, such as mortgage payment holidays and tax-free travel allowances, will be extended until 1 October 2021.

Agreements have been made with the implementing organisations on lenient rules for repaying government funding if too much was received. Tailor-made solutions will be sought wherever possible.

Time Out Arrangement (TOA)

Since the start of this year, businesses have been able to use the Court Approval of a Private Composition (Prevention of Insolvency) Act (WHOA) in order to reach an arrangement with creditors. The act helps businesses that have had to incur debt as a result of the crisis. The government is also providing €200 million in low-interest loans for SMEs so that they can restart, expand or modify their operations after concluding a WHOA arrangement. TOA loans are part of a set of measures to enable companies to get back on track after the crisis.

Other measures

  • The government has taken a detailed look at additional options for large retail and other businesses. All things considered, it has decided not to introduce a separate grant scheme for this purpose. A new scheme would be very untargeted and also complicated to implement. Tailor-made support remains the best way to prevent viable large companies from going bankrupt.
  • The credit guarantee schemes for SMEs, such as the BMKB-C, KKC, GO-C and the bridging loan scheme involving the microfinance organisation Qredits, will be extended until 31 December 2021.
  • After June 30, the government will discontinue the supplier credit reinsurance guarantee scheme. Thanks to the favourable economic outlook, the scheme is no longer necessary. Insurers will continue to offer cover even without a guarantee from the Dutch state, based on a thorough risk analysis.
  • The support package for culture and the creative industries will be continued in the third quarter of 2021, so that the cultural infrastructure remains intact and jobs are preserved. €25 million is available in direct support for self-employed persons in the cultural and creative industries, and €45 million for cultural institutions forming part of the basic national infrastructure (BIS) and institutions with a mandate under the Heritage Act. An additional €25.75 million is available in loans for monuments and historic buildings that are open to the public.
  • The support measures for sport and agriculture and horticulture that applied in the first and second quarters will in principle be extended for another quarter.
  • For zoos, the government is allocating €42.5 million for the period in the second quarter of 2021 when they were still closed. This funding is for ongoing costs, such as caring for the animals. Zoos are now open again but have put coronavirus measures in place.

Support and recovery package substantially expanded

Source: Government of the Netherlands

The government is substantially expanding its support package for jobs and the economy. Vaccination has begun, opening up possibilities for the future. But the reality now is that businesses are going through an extremely difficult period. The coronavirus crisis has now also become a long-running economic crisis, in which businesses and workers have been hit hard. Buffers have been eroded and reserves have been exhausted.  Measures have been tightened and the Netherlands is in lockdown. The government is therefore giving its support and recovery package a significant extra boost.

Additional expenditure on the package will amount to €7.6 billion over the first and second quarters of 2021.

Fixed Costs Grant Scheme

The government is expanding the Fixed Costs Grant Scheme (TVL), and more businesses will be eligible for support under the scheme. For the first two quarters of 2021, the TVL grant will be 85% of a proportion of fixed costs that is equal the percentage of turnover lost, provided the loss in turnover is at least 30%. The requirement that a business must have no more than 250 employees to be eligible is being abandoned. This means that larger companies also qualify. In addition, from the first quarter of 2021, the maximum grant amount will rise from €90,000 to €330,000 for SMEs and €400,000 for non-SMEs.

In order to provide additional support to small businesses like hairdressers and pedicurists, the minimum grant amount will rise from €750 to €1,500. The government is also examining the possibility of giving more small businesses access to the TVL scheme. The expansion of the scheme will cost a total of around €3.8 million in the first and second quarters of 2021.

Compensation for retailers holding excess stock

The government is extending and raising the compensation for retailers that have been left with excess stock due to the extended lockdown. Many stores have been left with, for example, winter collections that will be hard to sell. In the first quarter of 2021, the grant will amount to 21% on top of the fixed-cost percentage that applies under the TVL scheme (previously 5.6%), up to a maximum of €200,000. The expected cost of this measure is €160 million.

Startups

The government is introducing a scheme for new businesses which were started between 1 January and 30 June 2020. The details have yet to be finalised. The scheme, which will be based as far as possible on the TVL, will apply to both the first and second quarters of 2021. The reference period for these businesses will be the third quarter of 2020. Startups which began between 1 January and 15 March 2020 are also eligible for the standard TVL scheme in the first quarter of 2021. In the second quarter of 2021, startups which began between 1 January and 15 March 2020 will only be eligible for the separate startup scheme.

The government hopes to be able to launch this scheme in May. The scheme is expected to cost between €55 million and €70 million per quarter. Startups can also obtain a coronavirus bridging loan of up to €35,000. A total of €70 million has been set aside for coronavirus bridging loans.

Temporary emergency scheme for job retention (NOW) and Self-employment income support and loan scheme (TOZO)

NOW grants, which enable employers to continue paying their employees’ salaries, are being increased from 80% to 85% of the wage bill. The amount by which the wage bill can be reduced without affecting the grant amount – the wage bill exemption – will remain at 10%. NOW grants for January, February and March can be applied for from 15 February.

Self-employed people can apply for income support under the TOZO scheme from 1 February 2021. They can apply for support covering the period from the start of the previous month. This means they can apply from 1 February 2021 for income support for the period from 1 January 2021. On 1 March 2021 they can apply for support from 1 February.

The extended TOZO scheme (TOZO 4) starts on 1 April. TOZO 4 was due to introduce a means test, but the government has decided not to go ahead with this. Self-employed people will be able to apply for TOZO 4 for the previous month, in the same way as for TOZO 3. This means that income support from 1 April 2021 can be applied for on 1 May 2021. It will not be possible to apply under TOZO 4 for the period covered by TOZO 3 (i.e. for the period from January to March 2021 inclusive).

Events

A guarantee fund will be created for events. This will enable event organisers to start planning and organising festivals, for example, once it is responsible to do so. The current thinking is that this could be from 1 July. The government is still working on the details of this plan, for which at least €300 million will be earmarked.

Tax measures

The government is extending the period in which business owners can apply to defer payment of taxation, or to extend a deferral, to 30 June 2021. Businesses that have not yet applied for deferral or extension can now do so. For businesses that had already been granted an extension earlier this year, the deferral will now run automatically to 30 June 2021. The date from which businesses have to start paying the deferred tax will also be put back, from 1 July 2021 to 1 October 2021. They will be given 36 months to pay the tax they owe.

Also, as part of the Time Out Arrangement (TOA), the Tax and Customs Administration wishes to look more flexibly, together with creditors and debt counsellors, at waiving certain (tax) debts, in cases where a payment arrangement is not sufficient. It aims to have this plan ready in the second quarter of this year. In the meantime, the Tax and Customs Administration will put on hold any restructuring requests already submitted if the business owner concerned requests it to do so.

It is quite possible that we will work more from home in the future. The government is therefore now examining tax measures that could be devised to enable employers to reimburse costs associated with working from home. It is also looking at how that would tie in with existing travel expense allowances.

This year employers can also provide an allowance of this kind via the work-related costs scheme. This scheme is again being expanded, as it was last year. In addition, up to 30 March 2021 employers can again pay existing fixed travel expense allowances tax free.

Business owners who lose turnover due to the coronavirus crisis can again set so-called customary pay (a minimum salary for employees who own a substantial interest in the business) at a lower level in 2021, subject to new conditions that are comparable with other support measures. 

The hours-worked criterion that must be satisfied in order to apply certain deductions (such as the self-employed person’s tax deduction) is being relaxed up to 30 June 2021 due to the coronavirus crisis.

Certain other tax measures will also be extended until 30 June 2021, including the zero rate of VAT on face masks and enabling mortgage payment holidays for tax purposes. 

The additional tax measures will cost nearly €900 million.

Other measures

  • A credit facility will be introduced for business owners wishing to use the Court Approval of a Private Composition (Prevention of Insolvency) Act (WHOA) as part of the Time Out Arrangement (TOA). The combination of credit and the WHOA enables companies to restart their operations when the situation improves, so that jobs are retained. The government has set aside €200 million for this facility.
  • The government is extending support measures for amateur sport, for which it is making €240 million available. This money will fund the Amateur Sport Organisation Grant Scheme, the Sports Facility Lessors Grant Scheme, and the Special-Purpose Grant for Ice Rinks and Swimming Pools.
  • The temporary coronavirus-related scheme for students in secondary vocational education and higher education (MBO, HBO and WO) will be extended up to and including August of this year. Students whose studies are delayed due to coronavirus measures and who graduate between February 2021 and the end of August 2021 will receive a contribution towards their study costs. All students whose entitlement to a basic grant and/or a supplementary grant ends between October 2020 and the end of August 2021 will receive a financial contribution. This will cost around €135 million in total.
  • Medium-sized agricultural and horticultural businesses are not eligible for the increased TVL grant due to EU rules. The government considers this to be an undesirable situation and is therefore working on an alternative arrangement that complies with state aid rules.
  • The arrangements agreed with subnational authorities on compensation for extra expenditure and loss of income will be extended into the second quarter of 2021.

NCTV Threat Assessment: Attack in the Netherlands imaginable, with loners primary threat

Source: Government of the Netherlands

There are currently individuals in the Netherlands who are radicalising or are already highly radicalised, and who may pose a threat. Although there are no indications that anyone in the Netherlands is preparing an attack, it remains conceivable that this could happen. Attacks in Europe are usually somewhat improvised in nature, perpetrated by loners and have few victims. The jihadist threat has by no means disappeared. Consequently, the threat level remains at 3 out of a possible 5. These are among the conclusions set out in the 53rd NCTV Threat Assessment issued by the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV).

Polarised debate

Since the coronavirus outbreak, social discontent has continued to manifest itself both online and offline. Various groups and individuals have come together in rejecting the government or government policy. Ideological motives are not the main driving force, with this caused instead by feelings of injustice, intense unease or a conflicting view of reality. People who have long distrusted the government, science and traditional media may see their ideas confirmed in conspiracy theories and disinformation. Social media play a facilitating and mobilising role and fan the flames of discontent. In addition to the relatively wide-ranging and diverse activist forefront, there is a radical undercurrent of sometimes extremist behaviour, such as stalking journalists and politicians or intimidating the police.

Right-wing extremist threat of violence is conceivable

The coronavirus outbreak and the measures taken to control the virus have not led to an increased threat of right-wing extremism in the Netherlands. The known groups usually have little influence, are divided and mainly seek to connect with current themes. The developments online are very much another arena: it is on digital platforms in particular that individuals may radicalise through their interaction with like-minded people. A right-wing extremist attack remains conceivable, mainly because of online developments.

ISIS resurgent in Syria and Iraq

Compared to last year, ISIS is showing increased activity in Syria and Iraq. Since the fall of ‘the caliphate’ the threat of attack has diminished, but it has not yet disappeared. ISIS still intends to carry out attacks in European countries. To this end, the group is attempting to set up structures and networks in which sympathisers and supporters within Europe can play a role and come into contact with ISIS members in Syria. The COVID-19 pandemic has temporarily curtailed the ability of jihadist travellers to return to Europe.

Jihadist movement in the Netherlands divided, but unpredictable

The direct threat of violence emanating from the Dutch jihadist movement seems to have diminished somewhat due to social and ideological fragmentation, dwindling motivation and the lack of powerful leaders and agitators. Although most activities are non-violent, the threat remains unpredictable. Some Dutch jihadists still intend to commit an attack in the Netherlands. Vigilance is still required with regard to some of the individuals in the movement. The coming years will be decisive for the jihadist movement. If it disintegrates even further, this could lead to a shrinking and less receptive environment for jihadists returning to society from captivity. This requires constant government pressure and the continued use of repressive measure.

Political Salafi agitators continue their activities

Agitators are attempting to increase their political clout by inciting and mobilising their supporters. This applies to individual cases, such as solidarity with the imam of the As-Soennah mosque in The Hague, or the dismissed director of the Cornelius Haga Lyceum secondary school, as well as to political issues, such as the report of the Dutch parliamentary committee of inquiry into undesirable influencing (POCOB: Parlementaire Onderzoekscommissie Ongewenste Beïnvloeding).